Global Coal Demand in 2026 Predicted to Remain Stable

The Indonesian Coal Mining Association (APBI) projects that coal demand from China and India in 2026 will grow moderately, in the range of 0.2% to 1%. Although growth is still expected, this year’s coal market outlook is seen as more challenging in line with regulatory adjustments that took effect at the start of 2026.

APBI Executive Director Gita Mahyarani said the adjustment to thermal coal demand prospects from China and India is expected to be limited and will not significantly affect global market dynamics. This aligns with the transformation of their energy mixes and domestic supply conditions in each country.

“For China, thermal coal import demand in 2026 is projected to undergo a moderate adjustment of around 0.2% to 0.3% compared to 2025,” Gita said, as quoted by Bloomberg Technoz.

In this context, Indonesia continues to maintain a strategic position as a key supplier. As of November 2025, Indonesia accounted for about 55% of China’s total coal imports, underscoring Indonesia’s important role in the global market.

Meanwhile, India’s global thermal coal import demand in 2026 is expected to still grow by about 1%. This growth is driven by rising electricity needs, although the realization will continue to be influenced by the management of domestic coal stocks.

Gita explained that as of November 2025, Indonesia contributed around 51% of India’s total coal imports.

“This condition underscores Indonesia’s dominant role as a primary supply partner,” she added.

For Southeast Asia, coal import opportunities remain open but are relatively limited and highly dependent on each country’s needs. Gita pointed out that demand from Malaysia continues to record an increase, while purchases by Vietnam tend to be stagnant. As for Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan, the markets are considered relatively stable with demand leaning toward specific specifications.

Heading into 2026, Gita views the coal market outlook as increasingly challenging. Industry players face a combination of regulatory adjustments—including export plans and foreign exchange retention policies for export proceeds (DHE)—amid rising production costs and uncertainty over the production volumes approved by the government.

“Businesses will be more cautious, focusing on efficiency, securing medium-term contracts, and diversifying markets realistically in line with actual demand,” she said.

On prices, coal ended the final trading day of 2025 on a positive note. On Wednesday (31 December 2025), ICE Newcastle coal for the nearest delivery contract closed at USD 107.5 per ton, up 0.8% from the previous day. Nevertheless, coal prices fell 14.17% over the course of 2025.

Amid rising global awareness of environmental sustainability, coal’s role is expected to remain under pressure in the long term. The International Energy Agency (IEA) notes that global coal demand in 2025 will still grow 0.5% to 8.85 billion tons—an all-time high—but is projected to level off and peak around 2030 as renewable energy expands.

Source: https://rri.co.id/nabire/bisnis/2084634/permintaan-batu-bara-global-2026-diprediksi-stabil

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